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Night with a Futurist
December 22nd, 2006 at 10:30 pm

New York Losing Population

New York was one of only four states to lose population in the year that ended in July, according to a new Census Bureau estimate.

The bureau estimated the state had 19,306,183 residents as of July 1, down 9,538 from the year before — the biggest loss of any state except hurricane-ravaged Louisiana.

Monroe County’s population was estimated at 733,366 in 2005, down from 735,343 in the 2000 census.

The drop in the state’s population, however, was so small that "I would characterize New York’s population as stable," said the bureau’s Gregory Harper.

But the South and West continued their population surges, with Florida continuing its advance to overtake the Empire State as the nation’s third-most populous state. The Sunshine State has 18.1 million residents.
California continued as by far the nation’s most populous state, with 36.5 million residents, followed by Texas with 23.5 million.

The country overall gained about 2.9 million people over the period, to just over 300 million.

Texas passed New York to become the second-most populous state in 1996. New York had the largest population for most of the 20th century until 1970, when it was overtaken by California.
In the aftermath of hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005, Louisiana lost by far the most people — almost 220,000 — in the year that ended in July, according to census figures. Michigan (5,190) and Rhode Island (5,969) were the only two other states to record a loss.

Arizona (3.6 percent), Nevada (3.5 percent) and Idaho (2.6 percent) were the fastest growing states in that period.

New York losses would have been far higher, but a continued surge in foreign immigration, mostly to New York City, of almost 125,000 people helped offset the 225,000 former New Yorkers who moved to other states.

"We are a high-turnover state," said state population expert Robert Scardamalia. "We have lots of people moving in, lots of people moving out."

Scardamalia disputed the census conclusion that the state lost population last year. He said that this year’s figure is actually about 50,000 people higher than the one published by the census a year ago.

But that estimate was later revised upward by 60,000 after New York City and other areas challenged the results.

"When the ‘06 numbers are revised next year, they will show growth," predicted Cornell University population expert Warren Brown.

Regardless, the slight drop, or slight increase, in the state’s population indicates the state has serious economic problems, said Robert Ward of the Public Policy Institute, a business-backed think tank.

"The bottom line is we’re far behind the rest of the country," he said.

He said there is a direct connection between New York’s failure to keep pace in job growth and its failure to keep pace in population.

"Young people go where they can find opportunities, and too many are not finding it in New York," he said.

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