In a throwback to the Y2K
transition, a number of Web sites are running countdown clocks that,
presently, read "426 days, 8 hours, 39 minutes, 31 seconds." That is
the time remaining until Feb. 17, 2009, the deadline set by Congress
when all US broadcasters must cease analog broadcasting and switch to
all-digital signals.

As this date approaches, interested parties are ratcheting up the debate over a number of important questions, including:

• How prepared are the government and the broadcast industry for the changeover?
• How aware is the public of the transition?
• Who is most likely to be affected by the change?
• What technical issues need to be resolved before the transition happens?

Preparedness is a point of contention in the government. A Dec. 11 report by the US Government Accountability Office criticized the Federal Communications Commission and the National Telecommunications and Information Administration for their handling of the matter. The GAO concluded that "no comprehensive plan exists for the DTV transition."

The FCC countered that it "has been planning for the DTV transition
for more than 20 years" and offered a 97-page inventory of what it
called its "considerable and comprehensive plans, goals and
achievements on technical, policy, consumer outreach and other critical
elements of the DTV transition."

On the same day, however, FCC commissioners Michael J. Copps
and Jonathan S. Adelstein—not coincidentally the only two Democrats on
the FCC panel—distanced themselves from the agency’s official position.
Copps wrote: "It continues to astound me that we do not have a
comprehensive DTV transition plan" and that "the hour is late—very
late."

And, in a candid acknowledgment of the divisions within the
organization, Copps revealed that he had not seen the FCC’s response to
the GAO report before its publication and did not necessarily endorse
its assertions.

As these government agencies continue to point fingers at each
other, new data shed light on where US consumers are vis-à-vis the DTV
transition.

A study by the Cable & Telecommunications Association for Marketing
found that 34% of total US households surveyed were familiar with the
transition. The percentages were higher among some of the more
"connected" segments of the viewing population, that is, broadband
households (45%) and digital cable households (40%).

However, the lowest awareness percentages were reported by the
groups most likely to be affected by the transition: primary and
secondary over-the-air (OTA) households.

CTAM also noted that primary OTA households had lower mean
incomes than cable and satellite households that had at least one OTA
TV set. Residents of primary OTA households were also less likely than
members of cable-OTA or satellite-OTA households to live in a
single-family house or to have attended college.

The Leichtman Research Group
reached similar conclusions in a report titled "HDTV 2007: Consumer
Awareness, Interest and Ownership." The group noted that 43% of US
adults had heard of the digital TV transition, up from one-third in
2006.

Leichtman also found that a household’s degree of
"connectedness" tended to affect its awareness of the impending switch.
Among those who weren’t subscribing to cable or satellite services,
about one-fifth said they were aware of the digital transition and
understood how it would affect their households, a far lower percentage
than the overall figure of 43%.

Income level also had a bearing on familiarity with the DTV
transition. More than one-half of households with annual income over
$75,000 had heard of the transition, versus 36% among those in
households with smaller annual incomes, according to Leichtman.

"The majority of Americans remain in the dark about the
consequences of the digital TV transition," said Bruce Leichtman,
president of Leichtman.

A July 2007 article in Ars Technica cited data from the American Association of Retired Persons
that showed that Americans age 50 and older watched an average of 5.5
hours of TV a day, the most TV of any US demographic group. This group
is also the most likely to be among the estimated 20 million Americans
who still get their TV signals over the air, according to Ars Technica.

As the transition approaches, the greatest challenge for
broadcasters and regulators will be to continue raising awareness of
the issue. To that end, the FCC has undertaken a number of awareness
initiatives in conjunction with organizations including the US Administration on Aging, the Bureau of Indian Affairs and the American Library Association.

A study done last year by CBS
suggested that awareness alone was enough to motivate substantial
numbers of OTA viewers to make the digital switch. The company found
that less than 30% of the US population was aware of the DTV switch as
of the fourth quarter of 2006. However, among those who were not aware,
when told of the change, 40% said they would upgrade to a digital set
before 2009.

Stay tuned to see what happens next. And make sure you’re not using those rabbit ears.

Via eMarketer