The Death of the College Degree: How the Credential Economy Is Being Rebuilt

By Futurist Thomas Frey

For more than a century, “Go to college, get a great job” was the mantra of the American dream. But that equation has broken down. The four-year degree—the once-sacred passport to success—is rapidly losing both its value and its credibility. Higher education is not just in a slump; it’s in free fall. The numbers tell the story. In just 15 years, the share of Americans calling college “very important” has crashed from 75% to 35%, while those calling it “not too important” have quintupled to 24%.

Tuition has soared an astonishing 899% since 1983, leaving 42 million borrowers owing a collective $1.8 trillion—second only to mortgages. Meanwhile, one-third of the long-term unemployed now hold college degrees, up from one-fifth a decade ago, and job postings requiring degrees have dropped 6% since 2019. You’re paying a quarter of a million dollars for a private education that increasingly guarantees nothing. The credential that once opened doors is now closing them.

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