The Course Creation Bottleneck: How One Company Could Unlock $8.5 Trillion in Human Potential

By Futurist Thomas Frey

The Constraint Nobody Sees

Here’s a number that should bother you: it takes between 49 and 267 hours to create one hour of quality training content.

Read that again. To produce a single hour of learning material that actually changes behavior and builds competency, organizations spend anywhere from a week to more than six weeks of human labor. The range itself tells you how broken the process is — we don’t even have predictability around how inefficient we are.

And here’s the kicker: only 12% of that painstakingly created content actually gets applied on the job.

This is the most expensive, least discussed bottleneck in the modern economy. We’re spending over $400 billion annually on corporate training, and 88% of it evaporates. The World Economic Forum estimates that 120 million workers need reskilling by 2030, yet we can’t train even a fraction of that number using current methods.

The problem isn’t that we lack information. The problem is that transforming information into learning experiences — the kind that stick, that change behavior, that build actual capability — remains desperately scarce and expensive.

I’ve been saying for years that by 2030, the largest company on the internet will be an education-based company we haven’t heard of yet. After looking at what Cogniate is building, I think they might be it.

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