Look to cities, not nation-states, to solve our biggest challenges

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Los Angeles’ economy is bigger than that of many nation states.

This article is part of the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting

The world in 2020 is looking more turbulent and uncertain than ever. Powerful economic, demographic and technological forces are rewiring international politics. According to the World Economic Forum’s new Global Risks Report, structural shifts are encouraging nation-states to adopt more transactional and unilateral postures. Some nations are abandoning old alliances, questioning the value of multilateralism and retreating to narrowly defined national interests. Amid continued downward pressure on the global economy, citizens are growing restless and frustrated with their national politicians.

Maybe they’re onto something. Perhaps nation-states are part of the problem.

Continue reading… “Look to cities, not nation-states, to solve our biggest challenges”

Why Manhattan’s skyscrapers are empty

Duplex Penthouse At 50 United Nations Plaza As Manhattan Luxury Condo Builders Try Dealmaking In Hunt For Buyers

Approximately half of the luxury-condo units that have come onto the market in the past five years are still unsold.

In Manhattan, the homeless shelters are full, and the luxury skyscrapers are vacant.

Such is the tale of two cities within America’s largest metro. Even as 80,000 people sleep in New York City’s shelters or on its streets, Manhattan residents have watched skinny condominium skyscrapers rise across the island. These colossal stalagmites initially transformed not only the city’s skyline but also the real-estate market for new homes. From 2011 to 2019, the average price of a newly listed condo in New York soared from $1.15 million to $3.77 million.

But the bust is upon us. Today, nearly half of the Manhattan luxury-condo units that have come onto the market in the past five years are still unsold, according to The New York Times.

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The geography of gender: where women work, economies grow

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Women from a single mothers’ association sweep rice at their processing plant in the town of Bolgatanga, Ghana.

Our world is full of brilliant possibilities. But they’re not always open to everyone. The opportunities for women to contribute to the global economy are intrinsically linked to where in the world they are born and reach adulthood. So long as global disparities exist in education and opportunity – as the World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap Report reaffirms this week – this will always remain the case. This holds us all back. Yet, the business community can, and must, help tackle this divide.

The geography of gender is challenging and complex. The latest Mastercard Index of Women Entrepreneurs (MIWE), for example, highlights the significance of geography in female entrepreneurship. Unsurprisingly, MIWE showed that higher-income, advanced economies, with open and vibrant markets that support SMEs and the ease of doing business provide highly conducive and enabling conditions to support female business owners.

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The coming boom in Millennial wealth

 

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Historically, much written on Millennials has focused on economic strife and crushing student loan debt. While, as with virtually every other generation in history, many Millennials have struggled financially during their youth, a new report from youth marketing experts YPulse makes four predictions that are suggestive of a significant turnaround being on the horizon.

Before getting to the predictions, it is important to take into account two key factors pertaining to Millennial wealth. First, the U.S. economy has been booming for a sustained period of time. Unemployment reached the point in 2018 where there are more open jobs than workers, the stock market is up, GDP has been growing at a healthy pace, and average real earnings have been increasing. In such an environment, those becoming established in jobs are in a better position to thrive. Moreover, many Millennials have been known to be careful spenders on many consumer products.

A second factor that bodes well for wealth growth is that student loans are not the albatross they are made out to be for most Millennials. While this does not mean that a significant number of individuals do not struggle with student debt, when one takes a macro view of the situation, it is not as bad as it has often been made out to be. One needs to remember that average level of $30,000 of student loan debt in 2019 would have translated to about $4650 in 1970 when an average aged Baby Boomer was taking out loans.

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Boomer homes to flood US market, but who will buy them?

Baby Boomer home sales will flood the housing market: Report

Baby Boomers’ homes will be sold on a large scale over the next 20 years, but with millennials refraining from home ownership, who will be buying them?

The U.S. housing market is on the verge of being inundated with homes for sale on a scale that hasn’t been seen since the housing bubble in the mid-2000s.

The tsunami is being driven by a grim reality: Baby Boomers dying.

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European Millennials are not like their American counterparts

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Under-30s in Europe are more disposed than their parents are to view poverty as a result of an individual’s choice.

In public perception, age is often related to political views. “Not to be a republican at 20 is proof of want of heart; to be one at 30 is proof of want of head,” the 19th-century French monarchist François Guizot is supposed to have said. King Louis Philippe’s prime minister was swept from power by the 1848 revolution, presumably by a combination of republican under-30s and older Frenchmen who had lost their heads. Since then, Guizot’s famous one-liner has often been updated.

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Co-working spaces pose threat to commercial real estate market, Fed official says

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LaunchBio CEO Joan Siefert Rose leads a tour of life sciences co-working lab, BioLabs NC.

The growing popularity of co-working spaces like WeWork could pose a risk to the US economy in the next economic downturn, a Fed official warned on Friday.

Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren, who has publicly dissented with the Fed’s recent interest rate cuts, said lower rates will boost risk in “unexpected places.”

“Evolving market models, along with low interest rates, are creating a new type of potential financial stability risk in commercial real estate,” he said at an event in New York City. “One such market model is the development of co-working spaces in many major urban office markets.”

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Australia is on the brink of a housing collapse that resembles 2008

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The U.S. has been an “island of stability” as economic woes grow all over the world. Other such islands exist, too.

Australia is high on the list. The last Down Under recession was 27—yes, 27—years ago in 1991. No other developed economy can say the same.

The long streak has a lot to do with being one of China’s top raw material suppliers during its historic boom. Australia has done other things right, too.

But all good things come to an end. While not officially in recession yet, Australia’s growth is slowing.

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Looking to the future, public sees an America in decline on many fronts

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Majorities predict a weaker economy, a growing income divide, a degraded environment and a broken political system

Public is broadly pessimistic about the future of AmericaWhen Americans peer 30 years into the future, they see a country in decline economically, politically and on the world stage. While a narrow majority of the public (56%) say they are at least somewhat optimistic about America’s future, hope gives way to doubt when the focus turns to specific issues.

A new Pew Research Center survey focused on what Americans think the United States will be like in 2050 finds that majorities of Americans foresee a country with a burgeoning national debt, a wider gap between the rich and the poor and a workforce threatened by automation.

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The end of work: The consequences of an economic singularity

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Today, we are no longer confined to what nature or natural intelligence must offer. From the steam engine to electricity and digital transformations to artificial intelligence, molecular manufacturing and bioengineering, each new transformative innovation has brought us a new (man-made) way of doing things in ways that nature did not provide for.

As new ways of manufacturing and production are emerging, they are taking away an ever-increasing number of tasks and roles previously performed by a human labor force. Furthermore, the automation, self-improvement, self-replication and distributed nature of the manufacturing processes are producing products and goods at a minimal cost. As a result, each of these existing and emerging technologies, individually and collectively, will likely one day eliminate the need for human labor for production of goods and services—shaking the very fundamentals of economics as we know today.

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Chart: The World’s Largest 10 Economies in 2030

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The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.

Today’s emerging markets are tomorrow’s powerhouses, according to a recent forecast from Standard Chartered, a multinational bank headquartered in London.

The bank sees developing economies like Indonesia, Turkey, Brazil, and Egypt all moving up the ladder – and by 2030, it estimates that seven of the world’s largest 10 economies by GDP (PPP) will be located in emerging markets.

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