The Economics of Things That Never Happen

How Do You Get Paid for a Disaster No One Ever Saw?

Some of the most valuable technologies of the future will prevent accidents, illnesses, cyberattacks, equipment failures, traffic jams, fires, and financial losses. That creates a fascinating economic problem: how do you measure — and get paid for — an event that technology successfully erased from history?

Imagine two engineers. One spends a career building bridges that stand for a hundred years without incident. The other spends a career responding to bridge collapses, arriving with cranes and rescue teams and headline-making heroics. Which one do you think gets the bigger budget, the louder applause, and the more secure job?

If your gut said the second one, you’ve just identified one of the strangest blind spots in modern economics: we are extraordinarily good at valuing things that happen, and remarkably bad at valuing things that don’t. And as more of our most important technologies shift from reacting to disasters toward quietly preventing them altogether, that blind spot is turning into a genuine economic crisis.