Testing the black swan theory

Black swan

Self-confessed sceptic Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s bestseller The Black Swan ridicules the idea of predicting the future. Instead, he argues that the world is dominated by the impact of rare, unforeseen, random, highly improbable and yet influential events. These Black Swans, he says, happen abruptly, coming from outside the range of our vision.

 

 

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb tells us why futurists get it wrong

According to Taleb the future will not be cool.

What will your future surroundings look like in five, 10 or 25 years.  Your imagination will probably see new things in it, things we call innovation, improvements, and killer technologies. These common concepts concerning innovation, we will see, are not just offensive aesthetically, but they are nonsense both empirically and philosophically.

 

 

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Watching The Income Tax System Implode

 Watching The Income Tax System Implode

When it comes to our tax systems, we are living in caveman times

In the movie The Day After Tomorrow, survivors stranded in a library are easily persuaded to burn the multi-volume IRS Tax Code to stay warm. In this fictional scenario, the question one might ask before securing a match: Why did we wait until the end of the world?

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