Here’s when machines will take your job, as predicted by A.I. gurus

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An MIT study predicts when artificial intelligence will take over for humans in different occupations.

While technology develops at exponential speed, transforming how we go about our everyday tasks and extending our lives, it also offers much to worry about. In particular, many top minds think that automation will cost humans their employment, with up to 47% of all jobs gone in the next 25 years. And chances are, this number could be even higher and the massive job loss will come earlier.

So when will your job become obsolete? Researchers at the University of Oxford surveyed the world’s best artificial intelligence experts to find out when exactly machines will be better at humans in various occupations.

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The job market in year 2040

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As a futurist, I’m often asked about the future of jobs. It is a concern for policy-makers, employers and the general population alike. What I realized, however, is that no one cares about losing the job itself. What they are worried about is how they will make a living in a future where they have become obsolete.

And yes, the fear of artificial intelligence (AI) is real. The McKinsey Global Institute estimates AI can automate 50% of all paid tasks today. Our primitive machine learning AI can easily complete repetitive human tasks better than any human could, including recognizing speech, context, shapes, and images. These narrow AI can also complete tasks like navigating an unpredictable field of obstacles, play an instrument, analyze large amounts of unorganized data and more. In 2021, AI will safely complete repetitive tasks with random components, like driving vehicles on crowded streets better than any human driver.

The speed at which AI is improving is astounding. The smart software is improving at an exponential rate since our software engineers use older versions of AI to help them program AI software updates.

In fact, developments in AI is so impressive and there is so much money invested by major well-known multinationals right now that most AI experts expect a human-level AI to emerge before the year 2040.

What will happen to the job market between now and the year 2040?

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The AI text generator that’s too dangerous to make public

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IN 2015, CAR-AND-ROCKET man Elon Musk joined with influential startup backer Sam Altman to put artificial intelligence on a new, more open course. They cofounded a research institute called OpenAI to make new AI discoveries and give them away for the common good. Now, the institute’s researchers are sufficiently worried by something they built that they won’t release it to the public.

The AI system that gave its creators pause was designed to learn the patterns of language. It does that very well—scoring better on some reading-comprehension tests than any other automated system. But when OpenAI’s researchers configured the system to generate text, they began to think about their achievement differently.

“It looks pretty darn real,” says David Luan, vice president of engineering at OpenAI, of the text the system generates. He and his fellow researchers began to imagine how it might be used for unfriendly purposes. “It could be that someone who has malicious intent would be able to generate high-quality fake news,” Luan says.

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IBM AI fails to beat human debating champion

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Harish Natarajan triumphed over the bot in a rapid-fire challenge.

After suffering defeat to AI at Go and Dota 2, the battle between man and machine was starting to look a little one-sided. But a human has finally notched up a win against our future robot overlords. Champion debater Harish Natarajan triumphed in a live showdown against IBM’s Miss Debater AI at the company’s Think Conference in San Francisco on Monday. The 2012 European Debate winner and IBM’s black monolith exchanged quick retorts on pre-school subsidies for 25 minutes before the crowd hailed Natarajan the victor. You can watch the debate in full below.

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IBM researchers predict 5 innovations will change our lives in 5 years

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IBM Research has a long history of inventing the future, so the big tech company’s researchers take their predictions seriously. Today they are revealing their annual “5 in 5” predictions, which detail five innovations that will change our lives in the next five years.

IBM will talk about the predictions at its Think 2019 event in San Francisco on Wednesday from 10 a.m. to 11 a.m. Pacific time.

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The big deal about an AI model that can talk like you

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Meryl Streep is pitch perfect as the narrator of the Norah Ephron novel Heartburn. In the audiobook version, Streep’s classic delivery brings alive the emotional turmoil as well as the self-deprecating wit of Rachel Samstat, who has just found out about her husband’s affair. In the Harry Potter audiobooks, it’s singer-actor Jim Dale who creates the magic.

Now let’s say you are discomforted by American and British accents. You prefer to hear Heartburn and the Potter books in voices you can relate with. You want to switch the genders of the narrators. You want the Muggles speaking in the voice of your favourite Bollywood actor. You want to be the narrator.

Those are real options a Bengaluru startup expects to offer as it develops an artificial intelligence model for cloning voices. It reckons there is massive business opportunity in impersonating voices, and not just from the growing popularity of audiobooks. Think voiceovers for ads, narrations for education-technology platforms, real-time translations, automated responses, voice assistants, smart speakers.

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Airbus mulls single-pilot flights as Artificial Intelligence could enable autonomous planes

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Skift Take Airbus acknowledges that the “explainability” of artificial intelligence is an impediment to getting regulators to sign off on certain products. Passengers will definitely need some very good explainers, too.

Though autopilot is not a new technology, Airbus’s Chief Technology Office Grazia Vittadini said the company is hoping current advances in artificial intelligence will help complete the step to completely autonomous planes.

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Face-scanning A.I. can help doctors spot unusual genetic disorders

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Facial recognition can help unlock your phone. Could it also be able to play a far more valuable role in people’s lives by identifying whether or not a person has a rare genetic disorder, based exclusively on their facial features? DeepGestalt, an artificial intelligence built by the Boston-based tech company FDNA, suggests that the answer is a resounding “yes.”

The algorithm is already being used by leading geneticists at more than 2,000 sites in upward of 130 countries around the world. In a new study, published in the journal Nature Medicine, researchers show how the algorithm was able to outperform clinicians when it came to identifying diseases.

The study involved 17,000 kids with 200-plus genetic disorders. Its best performance came in distinguishing between different subtypes of a genetic disorder called Noonan syndrome, one of whose symptoms includes mildly unusual facial features. The A.I. was able to make the correct distinction 64 percent of the time. That is far from perfect, but it is significantly better than human clinicians, who identified Noonan syndrome correctly in just 20 percent of cases.

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A neural network can learn to organize the world it sees into concepts—just like we do

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Generative adversarial networks are not just good for causing mischief. They can also show us how AI algorithms “think.”

GANs, or generative adversarial networks, are the social-media starlet of AI algorithms. They are responsible for creating the first AI painting ever sold at an art auction and for superimposing celebrity faces on the bodies of porn stars. They work by pitting two neural networks against each other to create realistic outputs based on what they are fed. Feed one lots of dog photos, and it can create completely new dogs; feed it lots of faces, and it can create new faces.

As good as they are at causing mischief, researchers from the MIT-IBM Watson AI Lab realized GANs are also a powerful tool: because they paint what they’re “thinking,” they could give humans insight into how neural networks learn and reason. This has been something the broader research community has sought for a long time—and it’s become more important with our increasing reliance on algorithms.

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9 AI trends on our radar

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How new developments in automation, machine deception, hardware, and more will shape AI.

Here are key AI trends business leaders and practitioners should watch in the months ahead.

We will start to see technologies enable partial automation of a variety of tasks.

Automation occurs in stages. While full automation might still be a ways off, there are many workflows and tasks that lend themselves to partial automation. In fact, McKinsey estimates that “fewer than 5% of occupations can be entirely automated using current technology. However, about 60% of occupations could have 30% or more of their constituent activities automated.”

We have already seen some interesting products and services that rely on computer vision and speech technologies, and we expect to see even more in 2019. Look for additional improvements in language models and robotics that will result in solutions that target text and physical tasks. Rather than waiting for a complete automation model, competition will drive organizations to implement partial automation solutions—and the success of those partial automation projects will spur further development.

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Google Brain built a translator so AI can explain itself

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A Google Brain scientist built a tool that can help artificial intelligence systems explain how they arrived at their conclusions — a notoriously tricky task for machine learning algorithms.

The tool, called Testing with Concept Activation Vectors or TCAV for short, can be plugged into machine learning algorithms to suss out how much they weighted different factors or types of data before churning out results, Quanta Magazine reports.

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