Wall Street jobs data ‘experts’ are failing big time


Attention all you Wall Street “experts” who try to predict the monthly employment report! This column is for you.

The rest of you, of course, can read along. But the first item in this column is specifically for those on Wall Street who get paid a lot of money to get their economic predictions correct.

And they don’t do that often enough.

Experts: it makes me sad to say this, but you aren’t doing a very good job. And, quite frankly, I’m afraid your bosses will soon be asking why and might even — dare I say it — be cutting your fine salaries.

OK, do I have your attention? Now I’m going to tell you where you are going wrong. Ignore me at your own — and your family’s — peril.

Continue reading… “Wall Street jobs data ‘experts’ are failing big time”

The peculiar blindness of experts



Credentialed authorities are comically bad at predicting the future. But reliable forecasting is possible.

The bet was on, and it was over the fate of humanity. On one side was the Stanford biologist Paul R. Ehrlich. In his 1968 best seller, The Population Bomb, Ehrlich insisted that it was too late to prevent a doomsday apocalypse resulting from overpopulation. Resource shortages would cause hundreds of millions of starvation deaths within a decade. It was cold, hard math: The human population was growing exponentially; the food supply was not. Ehrlich was an accomplished butterfly specialist. He knew that nature did not regulate animal populations delicately. Populations exploded, blowing past the available resources, and then crashed.

Continue reading… “The peculiar blindness of experts”

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