Wall Street jobs data ‘experts’ are failing big time

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Attention all you Wall Street “experts” who try to predict the monthly employment report! This column is for you.

The rest of you, of course, can read along. But the first item in this column is specifically for those on Wall Street who get paid a lot of money to get their economic predictions correct.

And they don’t do that often enough.

Experts: it makes me sad to say this, but you aren’t doing a very good job. And, quite frankly, I’m afraid your bosses will soon be asking why and might even — dare I say it — be cutting your fine salaries.

OK, do I have your attention? Now I’m going to tell you where you are going wrong. Ignore me at your own — and your family’s — peril.

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The peculiar blindness of experts

 

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Credentialed authorities are comically bad at predicting the future. But reliable forecasting is possible.

The bet was on, and it was over the fate of humanity. On one side was the Stanford biologist Paul R. Ehrlich. In his 1968 best seller, The Population Bomb, Ehrlich insisted that it was too late to prevent a doomsday apocalypse resulting from overpopulation. Resource shortages would cause hundreds of millions of starvation deaths within a decade. It was cold, hard math: The human population was growing exponentially; the food supply was not. Ehrlich was an accomplished butterfly specialist. He knew that nature did not regulate animal populations delicately. Populations exploded, blowing past the available resources, and then crashed.

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Color Marketing Group Decides What’s Hot In Colors For 2010

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The Color Marketing Group forecast color directions for all industries, manufactured products and services

Fashion is a fickle thing, and, unless you follow trends closely, you get left behind in the “that was so last week” heap.   When it comes to the look of your home, fashion is fairly forgiving. Unless you regularly entertain experts from the design world, you can pretty much get away with anything that looks “good” — well, at least for a couple decades, anyway. However, if your home is way past due for a makeover, or if you just want to get ahead of the curve for once, here we present the colors the experts say will be “hot” this year. And for a little emphasis and perspective, we turn to Marie Stewart, interior designer and owner of the Santa Clarita Valley franchise of Decorating Den Interiors. This is a full service interior design and decorating company, with the motto “No project is too small.”

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The Mysterious Mima Mounds

The Mysterious Mima Mounds 

We don’t know what they are, where they came from, or what caused them

Scientists love a mystery. Biologists used to have the human genome, but now they have the structure of protein. Physics used to have cosmic rays, but now they have the God particle. Astronomers used to have black holes, but now they have dark matter. (Pics)

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Experts Seek to Save Precious Minutes Deploying Ambulances

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Every extra second it takes an ambulance to get to its destination can mean life or death. But how, besides driving faster, can ambulances get emergency services to people in need as efficiently as possible, every day? It’s a classic operations research question that three Cornell researchers are tackling in groundbreaking ways.

 

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