2020 predictions from IDCGETTY
IDC released today its worldwide IT industry predictions for 2020 in a webcast with Frank Gens, IDC’s senior vice president and chief analyst.
The focus for the 10 predictions for next year and beyond is the rise of the digital economy. By 2023, IDC predicts, over half (52%) of global GDP will be accounted for by digitally transformed enterprises. This digital tipping point heralds the emergence of a new enterprise species, the digital-first enterprise.
To drive digital supremacy, an enterprise must devote half of its budget to supporting digital innovation, establishing a large-scale, high-performing, digital innovation factories and a third-party ecosystem to produce digital products and provide fee-based wholesale digital services to other enterprise. The latter will be an entire new enterprise competency, similar to the management of Amazon’s platform for third-party sellers. IT resources will continue their migration to the cloud (and multi-clouds) and there will be heavy investment in automation and orchestration systems, using artificial intelligence and machine learning.
More generally, in this type of digitally-supreme enterprises, almost everything new will embed AI. Given the continuously evolving competitive requirements in every industry, these AI-enabled enterprises will be able to sense and respond in half the time than their competitors to any change in their markets.
With the increasing reliance on AI—and the data that feeds it—we will see the emergence of a new executive role—the Chief Trust Officer—a role that will oversee data security and privacy and ethical considerations, among other tasks requiring closer scrutiny.
A very important new skill and expertise for the entire leadership team of a digital-first enterprise is excellent peripheral vision. Traditional industry boundaries are rapidly disappearing and to participate in new economies that mesh up offering from different industries, executives need to better understand how their own industry and markets inter-connect to other industries, so they can strategically provide a holistic experience for their customers (e.g., the connected passenger ecosystem encompasses the traditional auto industry value chain but is focused on the total passenger experience rather than the just car).
Here are IDC’s 2020 IT predictions:
Hasten to Innovation:
By 2023, over 50% of all ICT spending will be directly for digital transformation and innovation (up from 27% in 2018), growing at 17% CAGR (vs. -3.5% for the rest of ICT).
By 2022, 70% of enterprises will integrate cloud management — across their public and private clouds — by deploying unified hybrid/multicloud management technologies, tools and processes.
By 2023, over 50% of new enterprise IT infrastructure deployed will be at the edge rather than corporate datacenters, up from less than 10% today; by 2024, the number of apps at the edge will increase 800%.
Factories By 2025, nearly two-thirds of enterprises will be prolific software producers with code deployed daily, over 90% of new apps cloud native, 80% of code externally sourced and 1.6 times more developers.
Industry Apps Explosion:
By 2023, over 500 million digital apps and services will be developed and deployed using cloud-native approaches, most of those targeted at industryspecific digital transformation use cases.
By 2025, at least 90% of new enterprise apps will embed AI; by 2024, over 50% of user interface interactions will use AI-enabled computer vision, speech, natural language processing and AR/VR.
Trust Is Promoted:
By 2023, 50% of the G2000 will name a Chief Trust Officer, who orchestrates trust across functions including security, finance, HR, risk, sales, production and legal.
Every Enterprise a Platform:
By 2023, 60% of the G2000 will have a digital developer ecosystem with thousands of developers; half of those enterprises will drive 20%+ of digital revenue through their digital ecosystem/platform.
By 2025, 20% of revenue growth will be from “white space” offerings that combine digital services from previously unlinked industries, and one-fifth of partners are from previously unlinked industries.
Tech Platform Wars:
By 2023, the Top 5 public cloud megaplatforms will consolidate at least 75% of market share; the Top 10 pureplay SaaS vendors will generate an average of near 20% revenue from expanding PaaS services.