China is on track to overtake Japan as the world’s largest car exporter in 2023, driven by a surge in electric vehicle (EV) shipments, according to research firm Canalys. The anticipated growth in Chinese EV exports is projected to reach 1.3 million in 2023, nearly double the 679,000 EVs exported in 2022, as reported by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM). Overall vehicle exports from China are expected to reach 4.4 million in 2023, up from 3.1 million in 2022.

While Japan’s car exports were estimated at 3.8 million in 2022, official data suggests the figure is closer to 3.5 million, according to the South China Morning Post. Nevertheless, China’s booming EV exports, accounting for 30% of all exports, will propel the country to surpass Japan and secure the top spot this year, following its overtaking of Germany in 2022. Mainland Chinese automakers are targeting key markets in Southeast Asia, Europe, Africa, India, and Latin America, with a well-established automotive supply chain at home enhancing their global competitiveness.

The research indicates that Chinese EVs could capture 16.5% of total sales in Europe by 2025, while KPMG’s chief economist Kevin Kang predicts China’s market share will reach 15% by that time. Brands such as BYD, Nio, and Li Auto are gaining popularity among consumers, prompting Chinese carmakers to expand their brand presence outside the mainland to build trust in the safety, reliability, and superior performance of Chinese-made EVs.

Although Chinese EV exports to Australia have been limited thus far, the landscape may be changing. MG, a Chinese-owned brand, recently unveiled Australia’s first sub-$40,000 new EV, the MG4, priced at $38,990 before on-road costs. This announcement coincides with BYD’s upcoming revelation of the Australian price for its own affordable EV, the Dolphin.

China currently produces approximately two-thirds of the world’s EVs, with exports accounting for less than 10% of sales for companies like BYD. As overall vehicle sales in China begin to slow, the rapid scale of EV production suggests a potential surge in Chinese EV exports to countries like Australia and beyond.

By Impact Lab