The widespread shift to remote work following the Covid-19 pandemic has dramatically altered urban transportation trends across the United States, according to a recent study by MIT researchers.
The study reveals a marked difference in the impact of remote work on vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and mass-transit usage across the country.
“A 1 percent decrease in onsite workers correlates with a roughly 1 percent reduction in automobile miles driven, but a 2.3 percent drop in mass transit ridership,” says Yunhan Zheng SM ’21, PhD ’24, an MIT postdoctoral researcher and co-author of the study.
“This is among the first studies to establish the causal relationship between remote work and its effects on vehicle miles traveled and transit ridership across the U.S.,” adds Jinhua Zhao, an MIT professor and another co-author.
By analyzing data from the lower 48 states, the District of Columbia, and 217 metropolitan areas, the researchers believe they have arrived at a robust conclusion about the broader implications of remote work on mobility patterns.
Their paper, “Impacts of Remote Work on Vehicle Miles Traveled and Transit Ridership in the USA,” is published in the journal Nature Cities. The study’s authors include Zheng; Shenhao Wang PhD ’20, an assistant professor at the University of Florida; Lun Liu, an assistant professor at Peking University; Jim Aloisi, a lecturer in MIT’s Department of Urban Studies and Planning (DUSP); and Zhao, the Professor of Cities and Transportation at MIT and founder of the MIT Mobility Initiative.
The researchers collected data on the prevalence of remote work from various sources, including Google location data, travel data from the U.S. Federal Highway Administration and the National Transit Database, and the monthly U.S. Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, conducted jointly by Stanford University, the University of Chicago, ITAM, and MIT.
The findings show significant variation in how different states have experienced changes in vehicle miles traveled due to remote work.
“The effect of a 1 percent increase in remote work on reducing vehicle miles in New York state is only about one-quarter of the impact seen in Texas,” Zheng notes, highlighting the regional disparities.
Remote work has also had the most significant impact on mass-transit revenues in cities with extensive transit systems, such as New York City, Chicago, San Francisco, Boston, and Philadelphia, which are among the top five hardest-hit metropolitan areas.
The study’s results have remained consistent over time, from early 2020 to late 2022.
“In terms of temporal variation, we found the impact of remote work to be steady throughout the study period,” Zheng says. “This trend suggests long-term implications, even beyond the initial pandemic response.”
The study also estimates the environmental and economic impacts of a potential increase in remote work.
“Nationally, a 10 percent decrease in onsite workers compared to pre-pandemic levels could reduce annual vehicle-related CO2 emissions by 191.8 million metric tons,” Wang states.
Furthermore, the study projects that across the 217 metropolitan areas examined, a 10 percent reduction in onsite workers compared to pre-pandemic levels could result in an annual loss of 2.4 billion transit trips and $3.7 billion in fare revenue—equivalent to approximately 27 percent of the 2019 transit ridership and fare revenue.
“The significant impact of remote work on transit ridership underscores the need for transit agencies to adapt their services, investing in noncommuting trips and implementing more flexible schedules to better meet the new demand patterns,” Zhao concludes.
By Impact Lab
