Nathan Myhrvold, a key figure in the rise of modern computing as Microsoft’s first CTO, has witnessed the technological revolution firsthand. His role in shaping Microsoft’s strategy from 1986 to 2000, where he worked alongside Bill Gates, positioned him as a pioneer during a formative period for the tech industry. Decades after leaving the company, Myhrvold continues to reflect on his experiences and offers insights into the current state of artificial intelligence (AI)—and while he’s impressed with the progress, he believes that AI is still far from reaching its true potential.

At GeekWire’s Microsoft@50 event on Thursday, Myhrvold discussed Microsoft’s profound impact on the modern tech landscape. He noted, “We live in a technological world. We all interact with technology constantly, and Microsoft was an absolutely fundamental, foundational part of that.” He recalled how Microsoft’s early vision of “a computer on every desk and in every home,” once ridiculed, has now become a global reality, transforming the world for the better.

However, he acknowledged that achieving that level of transformation required creating software standards that allowed hardware and software to evolve separately while maintaining compatibility. According to Myhrvold, Microsoft played a crucial role in making this happen.

As the tech world moves toward AI, Myhrvold remains closely engaged with technological advancements through his venture, Innovation Ventures, which focuses on investments in technology and energy. When it comes to AI, he’s cautiously optimistic but sees it as a work in progress.

“There’s a persistent thing with the tech industry that people overestimate the short term and underestimate the long term,” he stated, addressing the overhyped expectations often associated with emerging technologies. While he recognizes the potential AI has, he compares its current state to the personal computer revolution of the 1980s: “I think AI has tremendous potential, and I would put AI today a lot like personal computers in the 1980s, meaning it’s good for a bunch of things. But I think its potential is enormously higher, and that will require a whole lot of work by a whole lot of folks.”

For Myhrvold, the excitement surrounding AI is not unfounded. He praises the technology for its ability to mimic human language, something that would have been unimaginable only a few decades ago. “What’s amazing is that fairly simple techniques and tremendous amounts of computing power actually achieved something that is able to mimic most parts of human language. That’s almost unbelievable,” he said, applauding the achievements of pioneers like Geoffrey Hinton, who won the Nobel Prize for his work on machine learning.

Despite AI’s impressive capabilities, Myhrvold believes the technology is still far from fully realized. While he’s “entirely heartened” by AI’s progress, he suggests that we still need more “miracles” before AI can match human intelligence. However, he remains uncertain when these breakthroughs will happen—whether they could be imminent or take another decade.

He emphasized that what’s most important is not just the raw power of AI, but how it’s used. “It’s the work of harnessing that power to do something for you, and that’s what application programming is about,” he explained.

Myhrvold argued that we have yet to see the real “killer app” for AI. “We’ve only scratched the surface,” he declared, suggesting that current AI applications are only scratching the surface of what’s possible. While AI is being applied in various industries, he believes that the most impactful use cases are still to be developed.

Myhrvold also credited Microsoft’s partnership with OpenAI as a strategic move that placed the company in a strong position in the AI race. “They bet on the right one,” he remarked, referring to Microsoft’s investment in OpenAI when it was a much smaller company with only four employees. The partnership has paid off, with the companies now at the forefront of AI development.

He downplayed fears about AI posing existential threats, comparing AI overlord doomsday scenarios to fictional villains like Sauron from The Lord of the Rings or the Night King from Game of Thrones. “When people conjure up these stories about AI overlords destroying all of us, it’s very similar to that. It’s a story you can get very excited about, but really, we all know we’re going to go home, and there’s no AI overlord outside that’s going to get us,” he said, calling out the hysteria surrounding AI.

Myhrvold’s perspective on AI is a balanced mix of optimism and pragmatism. While he acknowledges the challenges ahead, he views AI’s trajectory as being much like the early days of personal computing—full of promise, but requiring time and effort to fully unlock its potential. The key to advancing AI, he believes, is bold investments, experimentation, and a willingness to embrace the unknown.

For Myhrvold, companies like Microsoft that take calculated risks may be the ones to shape the future of AI. “Those willing to take calculated risks—like Microsoft did—may be the ones shaping the future of AI,” he said, underscoring that innovation comes from those who are willing to look beyond current limitations and take a chance on what’s next.

In the end, Myhrvold’s take on AI reflects a long-term vision that focuses on steady progress rather than sudden breakthroughs. The road ahead for AI might still be filled with unknowns, but it’s clear that, for Myhrvold, the future remains full of promise.

By Impact Lab